My name is Alex and I used to be a mathematician at a slot machine company (IGT). I wanted to write this article on how to actually win at slot machines because I haven’t seen a decent article about the topic.
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It’s true that there are a lot of articles about ‘how to win at slot machines’. But, most of the given advice is how to lose less money and some of the advice is completely false.
As a former mathematician at a slot machine company, I know first hand how slot machines work and I know how to manipulate the odds in your favor.
First off let me state that the reason why slot machines exist is because they are making money for the casino. That being said, it is still possible to win money playing slots. Not because you are winning money from the casino, but because you are winning money from the other players who are playing the same slot machines that you are.
I want to illustrate this first with a simple made up example. But the same principles apply to slot machines and I will get to that later in this article.
Image a regular coin. When flipped it can either come up heads or tails. Now imagine we are going to gamble on the outcome of the flip. We bet $1. If the coin comes up heads we win $2. If the coin comes up tails we lose our dollar.
This would be a fair game.
Now let’s say we play for 10 flips. It’s possible we get lucky and heads comes up more than tails. But it’s also possible we get unlucky and tails comes up more often.
However, if we played this game hundreds or thousands of times we should be pretty close to break even.
We bet $1 and our expected win (or average result) is $1. Half the time we win $0 and half the time we win $2. This is what makes the game fair.
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The expected win of the game is:
½ x $0+ ½ x $2 = $1
This is not a realistic game in a casino. This is because casinos don’t offer fair games because they need to make money. The next example is a more realistic game that a casino would offer.
Image the same regular coin. But now on heads we win $1.80. On tails we lose our dollar.
So half the time we win $0 and half the time we win $1.80.
The expected win of the game is:
½ x $0 + ½ x $1.80 = $0.90
So we are essentially betting $1 to win $0.90. If we flip the coin 10 times, we could get lucky and heads happens more than tails and we win some money. But more often than not we will lose money.
Number of Heads | Number of tails | Win |
---|---|---|
0 | 10 | -10 |
1 | 9 | -8.2 |
2 | 8 | -6.4 |
3 | 7 | -4.6 |
4 | 6 | -2.8 |
5 | 5 | -1 |
6 | 4 | 0.8 |
7 | 3 | 2.6 |
8 | 2 | 4.4 |
9 | 1 | 6.2 |
10 | 0 | 8 |
If we flip 10 coins and there are 5 heads and 5 tails (which is the average result), we win 5 x $1.80 = $9. But flipping 10 coins costs $10, so we end up losing $1.
And the longer we play the more likely we will lose. This is what slot machines are like. The casino has the advantage and the longer we play the more likely we are to lose.
Now, let’s look at an example of how to win at slot machines. Let’s change the coin flip game so there is a progressive jackpot. And on every flip $0.30 goes to the progressive.
So we bet $1. $0.30 goes to the progressive. On heads we win $1.20 plus whatever is in the progressive. On tails we win $0.
The expected win of the game without the progressive is:
½ x $0 + ½ x ($1.20) = $0.60
But since $0.30 is added to the progressive each spin, the expected win of the game is:
$0.60 + $0.30 = $0.90.
The casino still has the advantage because we betting $1 to win $0.90.
But if we only played this machine when the progressive is large enough we would have the advantage.
For example, let’s say our friend Tim is playing the coin flip game. Tim flips 3 tails in a row.
So $0.30 x 3 = $0.90 is added to the progressive.
Tim stops playing because he thinks he is unlucky.
Now we play. $0.30 is added to the progressive from our flip. $0.90 is already in there because of Tim for a total of $0.30 + $0.90 = $1.20 in the progressive. If heads is flipped we would win the base value of getting a head, which is $1.20, plus the value of the progressive which is also $1.20, for a total of $2.40.
If there was a coin flip game where you can bet $1 and win $2.40 on heads and nothing on tails would you play? I know I would. Our expected win is:
½ x $0 + ½ x $2.40 = $1.20
So we are betting $1 to win $1.20!
Of course it is possible for us to flip the coin 5 times and get 5 tails in a row and still end up losing money. But that doesn’t mean that it was a bad bet. If we were to only ever play games where we have the advantage, where we are betting $1 to win $1.20, over hundreds of flips we will end up ahead regardless of what happens in the short run.
The trick is, we should only play this game until we win the progressive. Once the progressive is won and reset to $0 this game is no longer profitable for us to play.
So the strategy for this game is to let other players build the progressive. And once the progressive is large enough, we play until we hit the progressive. Then we leave and find a new game to play.
This is what I mean by: we are not winning money from the casino. We are winning money from the other players who are playing the same slot machines as us.
This simple flip a coin example doesn’t exist in casinos but this same principle applies to any slot machine with a progressive. At some point the progressive could get big enough that it is profitable for us to play.
This is how to win at slot machines.
I hope through this simple example, I have proven to you that it is possible to play a slot machine profitably. Now I am going to move on to real life examples.
Royal Spins was one of the first games that I worked on at IGT. This was the first time I realized that if you played this game only at specific times you could win at slot machines.
Royal Spins is just a regular slot machine game but something special happens when you get 5 cherries in a row. When you get 5 cherries in a row, one of the cherries at the bottom of the screen lights up and when you light up all 5 you win the jackpot.
Above there are two images of Royals Spins. At the bottom of the first image there are 5 unlit cherries and a jackpot of 0. At the bottom of the second image there are 4 lit cherries and a jackpot of 4100. So the next time you get 5 cherries in a row on the second screen you win the jackpot.
If you had the choice to play one of these two machines, which one would you play? You probably realize just by intuition that the second game with the 4 cherries lit is better to play and you would be right!
Everything about these 2 machines are identical. Except when you get 5 cherries in a row. On the second machine you win the jackpot but on the first machine you don’t win the jackpot.
Do you think that for every dollar you bet on each machine that your expected win is the same? It’s not. In fact the expected win is vastly different.
Over the lifetime of the game for the casino, the casino has the advantage. Over millions and million of spins the casino has the advantage. Of course they do, or they wouldn’t have this machine on the floor.
But if you only ever played Royal Spins with 4 cherry’s collected your expected win would be much higher than if you were just playing continuously.
In many cases, if you only played this game with 4 cherries collected you would have an expected win higher than your bet. In other words, for every dollar that you bet you would expect to get more than a dollar back.
The reason this is possible is because the extra money you are winning is coming from all the other players who helped collect the 4 cherries. It’s not coming from the casino.
Again this is the most important concept! The reason it is possible to play slots with an advantage is because the extra money is coming from all the other players who play the machine, not the casino.
This is how to win at slot machines!
If you only played Royal Spins with 4 cherries collected your expected win would be higher than the players who play the game with less than 4 cherries collected.
I am now going to show you how this works mathematically. There are a few ways to show it, but I’m going to use the simplest way.
This math here is just an example because depending on where you’re playing Royal Spins, the math will be slightly different. For example, if you were to find Royal Spins in Las Vegas, the math would be different than if you were playing Royal Spins in Oregon, or Alberta, or Italy, or Sweden or where ever – more on this later.
Let’s assume the version of Royal Spins we are playing pays back $0.95 for every $1 bet. This means the machine is paying back 95% of our bet. Let’s also assume 5% of every bet goes towards the progressive pot.
Royal spins has 5 states the game can be in:
- 0 cherries collected
- 1 cherry collected
- 2 cherries collected
- 3 cherries collected
- 4 cherries collected
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There is also 5 cherries collected. But 5 cherries collected is the same as 0 cherries collected because when 5 cherries are collected the machine resets back to 0 cherries.
The progressive can’t be won if less than 4 cherries are collected. So the payback for these states is 95%-5%=90% (the payback of the game minus the 5% of our bet going toward the progressive). There are 4 states where it’s impossible to win the progressive (0, 1, 2 and 3 cherries collected).
We want to find the payback of the 5th state – when 4 cherries are collected. We know the overall game pays back 95%. And we know the average of the 5 states is 95% because over the lifetime of the game there will be equal time spent in each state.
This represented mathematically is:
(90%+90%+90%+90%+State5) / 5 = 95%
(90% x 4 + State5) = 95% x 5
State5=95% x 5 – 90% x 4
State5 = 115%
When we solve for State5 we get 115%. So for every $1 bet our expected win is $1.15. This means that if we only played this machine with 4 cherries collected it would be profitable for us to play. And we would be able to win money playing slot machines.
Since the math for Royal Spins is slightly different depending on the location of the game (Las Vegas, Oregon, Alberta, Italy, etc.), I can’t tell you what the expected win is on every version out there. But you can use the following formula to determine the payback percentage for any version of this game.
Payback Percentage at 4 cherry’s = (RTP x 5 – (RTP-Increment rate) x 4)
Or use the tool below:
Where RTP is the Return to Player (or payback percentage) – I use industry averages for the jurisdiction where the game is located.
Increment rate is how much the progressive increases on each spin as a percentage of the bet. You will have to play the slot machine (or watch someone else play) to figure this out. If the progressive increased by $0.20 after $10 worth of game play the increment rate would be $0.20 / $10 x 100% = 2%.
A progressive is a pot that grows whenever a bet is made. Progressive pots will continue to grow until they are eventually won.
A must hit by progressive is a progressive that continues to grow but it is guaranteed to be won by a number.
For example, let’s say there is a must hit by progressive that has a minimum value of $25 and a maximum value of $50.
Every time a bet is made a percentage of the bet gets added to the progressive. But the progressive is guaranteed to be won by the time it gets to $50. So the more the must hit by progressive grows, the more likely it is to win it.
As an extreme example, let’s say there is a game with a must hit by progressive with a maximum value of $50. But pot is already at $49.99 and it costs $1 to play. The would be an example of a profitable game to play. Because when we bet $1 the must hit by progressive would increment to $50 and we would be guaranteed to win it. So we are essentially paying $1 to win $50 plus any other wins we get on that spin.
You probably won’t be able to find a must hit by progressive already at $49.99 when that maximum value is $50 in real life. But the point of this extreme example is to illustrate that once the must hit by progressive pot reaches a specific value, the slot machine will become profitable for us to play. It’s just a matter of calculating what this value.
This is how to win at slot machines.
I have created a calculator that determines when it’s profitable to play a must hit by progressive.
I hope I have been able to illustrate how to win at slot machines. The reason why it is possible is because the money you are winning isn’t coming from the casino, it’s coming from the other players who are contributing the the progressives.
I have shown how to do this with two real life examples (Royal Spins and any game with a must hit by progressive).
I hope this article has been useful and if you haven’t already, check out my must hit by progressive calculator which determines when a must hit by progressive is profitable for a player to play.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
This is the first part in a new series we are running on how you can get the most from your online slots play.
It is true to say that the odds are set against you when you play a slot machine, but at the same time, you can improve your chance of winning. This allows you to get more fun from your money and a bigger chance of hitting a jackpot.
When you play in a land-based casino, the big question is how to choose a machine and also, whether to max bet or not. With online slots, the bonus offers are a big factor. We discuss both of those below:
Decide Whether to Max Bet or Not
Some slot machines pay out better when you play max bet. For example, on some 3-reel games, if you hit a line of the top-paying symbols you might win (for example) 1,000 credits if you play 1 credit per line.
But, if you had been playing max credits per line (for example, 3 credits), then the top win might rise to 10,000.
In this type of example, you should play max bet, because if you hit that top winning line, you stand to win a lot more than you would otherwise
With other games, it makes no difference whether you max bet. For example, most video slots pay out the same, no matter how many credits per line you play.
One exception with video slots, is when there is a progressive jackpot. If you play a game like Wizard of Oz, which has a big progressive, you can only win if you play max bet. The max bet is usually $3 or $4 per spin, so you need quite a lot of money to play, but you get much better odds when you max bet.
If you don't have enough to max bet, then I would say it is better to choose a slot with a lower domination that does not have a progressive.
So, if you like penny slots, search for a jackpot you can win without max bet
Decide if a Bonus is Good for You (or not)
With online casinos, you will nearly always be offered the chance to take up one of their 'free cash' bonuses.
With a free cash bonus, the casino will match you initial deposit. for example, if you deposit $100, they will give you an extra $100, so you will start your play with a total of $200 (this is a 100% bonus)
Take a look at the latest list of Bonus Offers for Online Slots
Other casinos go further than that - some will offer 200%, 300% or even 400% bonuses. With a 400% bonus, if you deposit $100, you will get $400 extra, meaning that you get to play with $500 in total.
Terms and Conditions
Of course, all casino bonuses come with terms and conditions. If you take a 'free cash' bonus, the casino will expect you to actually play with the money. If they didn't enforce a minimum play rule, then people would just take the cash and run!
So, with a bonus, you must play through the bonus a certain number of times. Usually, this means you have to play 25x the total (of deposit + bonus) before they will allow you to cash out the winnings.
These bonuses are fantastic to play jackpot games, because you get so much more chance to hit the big jackpot. To win at slots with jackpots, bonuses are a perfect tool to give you the best odds.
However, bonuses might not be so good for the type of player that just wants to hit a $200 win playing slots and cash out straight away, because of the need to complete a play-through.
So, you need to decide yourself what type of player you are and then decide whether you will take your bonus offer or not. That will help give you the best chance of winning, depending on what type of win you are going for.